The National Weather Service office in San Diego warned of “dangerous and potentially catastrophic” flooding in the mountains and deserts as the center of Hurricane Hilary moves through the region early Sunday evening.
Hilary was downgraded from category 4 on Friday to category 1 on Saturday night, and is expected to weaken further, but will still be a dangerous tropical storm with winds of up to 60 mph when it arrives.
“The largest impacts from Hilary will be felt on Sunday, as the system moves into San Diego County and points north,” the weather service said in its official forecast at 9:47 p.m. “Expect stronger and shifting winds, and widespread heavy rain as the cyclone passes Sunday afternoon and night.”
“Bands of heavy rain and flooding are expected, with dangerous and potentially catastrophic impacts across the desert mountain slopes and deserts,” according to the forecast. “The rain and wind will taper off quickly on Monday.”
The National Hurricane Center in Miami issued an even stronger warning, saying Friday that “life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flooding are likely over much of Baja California and Southern California this weekend and early next week.”
The local forecast calls for the rain to begin Saturday afternoon, especially across
the mountains and deserts, with showers reaching the coast and valleys later in
the day into Sunday morning. The rain will occur in bands, so it will likely be on and off.
Most areas west of the mountains will see wind gusts of 35 to 45 mph, according to the weather service, with gusts up to 60 mph on the coastal slopes and in the foothills. Winds will shift from north and east on Sunday morning to south and west in the evening as the counter-clockwise storm flow passes.
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Cumulative rainfall is expected to range from 2 to 3 inches along the coast and in the valleys, from 6 to 12 inches in the mountains and from 3 to 7 inches in the deserts.
Along the coast, an increasing south-southeast ocean swell is expected, with surf of 3 to 5 feet on Sunday along with strong rip currents.
A tropical storm warning is in effect for all of Southern California along with a flood watch through Monday afternoon.
The weather service discouraged unnecessary travel on Sunday due to the potential for flooding in many areas.
Updated at 10:05 p.m., Saturday, Aug. 19, 2023