The University of San Diego Burnham-Moores Center for Real Estate’s Index of Leading Economic Indicators, released Wednesday, remained unchanged for October.
Even though there were more positive than negative components, decreases in local stock prices and help wanted advertising offset any gains, professor Alan Gin said.
The index was unchanged for the second month in a row. Prior to a slight uptick in August, the index had slipped in three straight months.
“Whether the next major move is a surge to the upside or a plunge downward is uncertain at this point,” Gin said. “The recovery, both nationally and locally, has gone on for a long time and may be getting long in the tooth.”
He said job growth should continue next year, though probably not enough to push the unemployment rate down any further, and continued low interest rates and oil prices will help. On the other hand, weakness in the global economy and a potential interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve could hamper the economy, according to the professor.
In October, local stock prices declined, breaking a string of four straight months of gains. Gin said the post-election stock market rebound will be reflected in his November report.
The amount of help wanted advertisements fell for the seventh straight month, he said.
The index stood at 139.9 last month, above the 139.6 mark at the beginning of this year, but below the post-recession high of 140.7 set in April.
—City News Service