San Diegan Meb Keflezighi’s chances of repeating as Boston Marathon victor Monday don’t amount to a hill of beans, according to experts.
Keflezighi, who turns 40 in May, will likely trail Kenyans (who have won 19 of the past 24 races) or an Ethiopian.
“Last year marked the first year since 1983 in which an American man broke the tape at the finish line on Boylston Street,” said a letsrun.com analysis.
“And as exciting as it was to see Meb Keflezighi win Boston – just a year after the tragic finish-line bombing – the odds are against another American victory on Monday.”
Keflezighi a 1994 graduate of San Diego High School, is more positive about his prospects.
“I’m going to be as competitive as I can because I have the same goals I did last year: to win, get on the podium or run a personal best,” he wrote Tuesday on Competitor.com, where he is vice president of running. “I always want to finish as high as possible when I race. I’m almost 40 years old but I still have that competitive spirit in me.”
Keflezighi’s main competition will be Ethiopia’s Lelisa Desisa, 25, with a personal best of 2 hours, 4 minutes and 45 seconds for 26.2 miles. Other favorites are Kenya’s Patrick Makau, the former world record holder, 30, and Kenya’s Wilson Chebet, 29, with a personal best of 2:05:27.
Last year, Keflezighi won in 2:08:37, a personal best that brought him his own day of honor in San Diego.
In his Tuesday essay, Keflezighi said he’s been thinking a lot about the upcoming honor of wearing No. 1 on his racing bib as defending champion.
“You earn that number,” he wrote. “They don’t just give you that because they like you. I feel blessed that I’m healthy and I’ll be able to defend my title on April 20. It’s an honor to be in this position.”
He said he’s not letting himself get excited yet.
“I want to save that excitement for when I get to Boston on Friday morning. Right now, I’m still focused on putting the finishing touches on my training. I’ve been training hard day in and day out to defend my title.”
Keflezighi won a silver medal in the 2004 Olympic marathon and took fourth at the 2012 London Games. But in elite racing, old honors don’t count as much as recent results.
Letsrun.com predicted: “The American win streak in Boston stops at one — a non-American will be your winner. Of course, we would have said the same thing last year. But lightning won’t strike twice in the same location in back-to-back years.”
He told New England Sports Network that he’s staying in shape for elite racing so his youngest daughter, “too young to remember the 2012 London Olympics, can see him compete in the 2016 Rio de Janeiro Games.”
“That’s my motivation,” Keflezighi said. “(In) 2016 and 2017, I’m going to retire. I’m going to retire from competitive marathons.”
