Sign at San Diego County Registrar of Voters Office in Kearny Mesa directs customers. Photo by Ken Stone

By Raoul Lowery Contreras

Donald Trump’s convicted fixer, former lawyer and self-described “thug” Michael Cohen quotes his former friend and boss in his new book “Disloyal” as saying “I will never get the Hispanic vote…Like the Blacks, they are too stupid to vote for Trump. They’re not my people.”

Trump was right in 2016. Actual Hispanic vote counts that year signal what will likely happen on Nov. 3 because Trump was successful in convincing only 20% of Hispanics outside Florida to vote for him. Mexican American vote counts showed Trump was fortunate to get 15% in Los Angeles and the Rio Grande Valley of Texas. 

The actual votes in 2016 exposed flawed exit polls that showed Trump receiving 28% of the Hispanic votes. Exit polls of Hispanic voters have proven to be largely worthless. 

Among the 61 million Hispanics in the United States there are legions of educated men and women who study their community. Because of that, we finally have surveys that are legitimate and don’t rely on professionals who don’t understand Hispanics.

A group of Hispanic PhDs — Latino Decisions — knows how to survey and, specifically, understands Hispanics. They are now producing survey work that is valuable in measuring Hispanic attitudes and the political conclusions that they use in voting for President.

The firm just completed a survey for the Latino Community Foundation, the California Election Survey. While there might be variations within the Mexican American populations of Texas, Arizona, New Mexico, Colorado, Nevada and the Chicago area, these results are predictive of the attitudes and how Hispanics will vote in November.

This survey was fielded in late August with a sample size of 1,200 and a 2.8% margin of error. Here are seven of the questions and results that stood out:

Question 1 — “Thinking ahead to the November 2020 Presidential election, what would you say the chances are that you will vote in the presidential election.” Answer: almost certain will vote, 73%; probably will vote, 11%; probably will not vote, 3%; certain not to vote, 5%. This means registered Hispanics will turn out to vote in large numbers, maybe 84% or more.

Question 2 — “Generally speaking, would you say things in this country are headed in the right direction, or are they off on the wrong track? Answer: right direction, 25%; wrong track, 71%; don’t know, 4%. The “wrong track” number is a killer. At 71%, its impossible for Trump to overcome that. Hispanics are likely to vote 3-1 against him.

Question 3 — “Please tell me if you have a very favorable view, somewhat favorable view, somewhat unfavorable view, or very unfavorable view of President Donald Trump.” Answer: favorable, 25%; unfavorable, 72%; haven’t heard or don’t know, 3%.” The 72% unfavorable figure indicates a landslide against Trump among Hispanics.

Question 5 –“Please tell me if you have a very favorable view, somewhat favorable view, somewhat unfavorable view, or very unfavorable view of Former Vice President Joe Biden.” Answer: favorable, 65%; unfavorable, 28%. Despite what some Republicans are saying, Biden has strong support among Hispanics.

Question 12 — “On the whole, what are the most important issues that you want for the next President and Congress to address? Answer: Responding to coronavirus, 47%; lowering the cost of health care, 25%; improving wages and incomes, 21%; creating jobs, 22%; protecting immigrant rights, 16%. Law and order, which is currently Trump’s main issue, isn’t a perceived priority for Hispanic voters.

Question 14 — “Thinking about the 2020 presidential election, do you plan to vote for the Republican Donald Trump or for the Democrat Joe Biden? Answer: Trump, 19%; Biden, 68%; someone else, 2%; undecided, 11%. So it looks like Biden can win as much as 80% of the Hispanic presidential vote.

Questions 23 — “Please indicate if you agree or disagree to defund police departments.” Answer: agree, 51%; disagree, 45%; don’t know 4%,” Considering Hispanics’ troubled experiences with police in California over the years, the response is very close and underscores why Trump’s “law and order” pitch isn’t resonating.

This survey reflects how California Hispanics felt in late August, but it’s clear that the Golden State’s Hispanics and their paisanos throughout the country will vote heavily against Trump. To twist Trump’s own words just slightly, they’re not so stupid as to vote for him.

Raoul Lowery Contreras is a Marine Corps veteran, political consultant and author of the new book White Anglo-Saxon Protestants (WASPS) & Mexicans. His work has appeared in the New American News Service of the New York Times Syndicate.

Show comments