San Diego County’s iconic coastal locations face triple threat from ‘Super El Niño’

If predictions are accurate and a “Super El Niño” is on San Diego’s event horizon, dozens of iconic locations along San Diego’s coastline will have to withstand not one but three threats, those being erosion of beaches, bluff collapse and coastal flooding from huge swells, high tides and rain.

The triple threat could potentially alter the region’s coastline — according to Adam Young, a Scripps Institution of Oceanography geomorphologist who studies California’s changing coastline.

“Powerful waves can accelerate erosion of beaches, sea cliffs, and bluffs, and cause coastal flooding; and strong El Niño conditions can raise sea level on the California coast by 6 to 13 inches,” Young wrote. “Combined, these factors increase coastal erosion and flooding during El Niño events, which can threaten public parks, beaches, critical infrastructure, highways, and homes.”

California’s entire coast has been scanned six times since 2023 by the California Coastline Survey, a state-funded climate initiative based out of the Air-Sea Interaction Laboratory at Scripps. 

Using an array of sensors mounted on helicopters, planes and trucks, researchers compare high-resolution models of the entire coast before and after El Niño storms strike.

The city council looked to protect San Diego’s coast from rising sea levels, adopting the Coastal Resilience Master Plan in September 2025. Project sites were identified at La Jolla Shores, Tourmaline Surf Park, Mission Beach, Ocean Beach and Sunset Cliffs.

Then, the council prioritized the resilience projects at Tourmaline, Ocean Beach, and Sunset Cliffs — which are now in the initial engineering design phase, according to city spokesman Peter Kelly. La Jolla Shores and Mission Beach have not progressed beyond conceptual designs due to funding constraints.

In the meantime, the city is installing sand berms along the shoreline of Mission Bay and other beaches. These sand walls absorb the power of heavy surf, reducing the risk of erosion and coastal damage. 

San Diego City College professor of physical science Lisa Chaddock stressed the need for preparation, “I am sure that some people are not taking this as seriously as they should.”

“Any homes on the cliffs are going to be in danger this year,” Chaddock wrote. “Some have put riprap below to take the blow of the waves, but the communities from Oceanside to Del Mar may see a lot of bluff damage.”

Cliff collapse isn’t the only danger posed by heavy rainfall and rising sea levels; El Niño could also worsen South Bay’s sewage crisis by spreading pollution further north, Chaddock explained.

Here are the beaches, parts of the bayfront and other waterways that are at risk, from North County to South Bay.