Odds favor below-normal rainfall and above-average temperatures in Southern California this winter, according to a National Weather Service forecast released Monday.
The overall average of 25 computer models indicate there is a 55 to 60 percent chance of neutral conditions this winter, meaning neither El Nino nor La Nina conditions, said Eric Boldt, an Oxnard-based meteorologist with the weather service.
The El Nino pattern, characterized by warming ocean temperatures near the equator, is associated with above normal rain.
However, there typically is no correlation with rainfall during La Nina conditions, which are lower than normal ocean water temperatures.
The El Nino pattern and accompanying heavy rainfall was forecast for last winter, but rainfall was below normal. The last time there was above normal rainfall in Southern California was in the 2010-11 season, Boldt said.
Above normal temperatures are forecast for Southern California for December through February, he said.
“The last 5 1/2 years have been the warmest on record,” Boldt said. Records have been kept since the late 1800s.
The San Diego County Water Authority said Friday that the local region has sufficient supply to meet expected demand next year and beyond, but efficient water use by customers remains essential. The water authority credited the opening of a desalination plant in Carlsbad and contracts to receive Colorado River water.
City News Service contributed to this article.
