San Diego Wave’s tie with Boston Legacy, combined with KC Current’s win over the Washington Spirit over the weekend, means that a whole range of possibilities are in play when it comes to the NWSL playoffs.
If the Wave (17-8-4), which had won five in a row, had beaten Boston, the club would have locked up the second seed with an outside chance at passing Gotham FC (17-5-7) for the top spot. That is, if Gotham lost or drew with Utah – along with a victory for San Diego over Bay FC – in Sunday’s regular season finales.
Since that did not come to pass, the Wave actually have a greater chance of dropping to the third seed considering that Washington (16-9-4) plays the Chicago Stars, last in the standings and in the midst of an eight-game winless streak. That includes Chicago’s 3-0 loss to the Spirit on Sept. 30.
But fortunately for the Wave, Bay FC isn’t that much better, at 7-16-6, they sit two spots ahead of the Stars in 14th place. But Bay FC emerged with a 1-0 victory over San Diego at Snapdragon Stadium early this season, all the way back on May 3.
“It’s quite simple for us,” said Wave head coach Jonas Eidevall. “We need to take a point to get the second seed and we need to win in order to put pressure on Gotham. In some aspects we control our own destiny.”
With the first three league tie-breaker scenarios – goal differential, followed by most wins and then goals scored – a Washington victory combined with a San Diego defeat means both teams finish with 55 points. The Spirit, however, has the better goal differential.
A Wave victory forces Gotham FC to win or draw versus the Utah Royals (14-10-5) in order to capture the first seed and clinch the Supporters’ Shield. Utah has just one victory over its last five matches and has been shutout in its last two while Gotham has lost just twice over its last 17 games.
SD Wave defender Kristen McNabb said that over the last few weeks, the team, aware of the stakes, approached its remaining regular-season matches like they were “six finals.”
“We want to finish strong and we want to put ourselves in the best possible position,” McNabb said.
While managing to secure the top seed would give San Diego its second Supporters’ Shield in the team’s five-year history, it would also, potentially, set up a quarterfinal round meeting with the Seattle Reign (13-11-5).
Seattle, currently the eighth seed, in all likelihood, only makes it to the postseason in the last playoff spot. But the Reign has dominated the West Coast rivalry with San Diego, losing just once to the Wave in 14 all-time meetings. That includes 10 Seattle victories.
While the ideal scenario for SD Wave is to put Bay FC away early at PayPal Park by capitalizing on first-half opportunities, the question arises: What will Eidevall do if he looks up at the scoreboard in the second half and sees Gotham and Washington dominating their opponents while his team is either up a goal or tied?
What adjustments or substitutions would he make in order to assure the Wave leaves as the second seed, giving them a shot at a second playoff match at Snapdragon?
“It’s so important for us to play at home,” he added. “If we can go and make sure that we, at a minimum, finish in the top two, then we have (it) in our own hands to be able to bring a semifinal here as well. It’s very exciting for us, but we have a lot of work to do before that.”
On Thursday, the Wave confirmed that the club will host a Nov. 6 quarterfinal at Snapdragon. It’s a potential No. 2 versus No. 3 meeting with Washington. Though the Spirit could drop all the way to fifth place if it loses to Chicago, combined with victories for Los Angeles and Kansas City, the odds of that are negligible.
Ultimately, all the maneuvering leads to the 2026 NWSL Championship on Nov. 21 at Audi Field in Washington, D.C.
