The Daily Mail is the largest paid-circulation newspaper in Britain. Last week the tabloid’s website ran a 650-word article on a congressional race 5,400 miles from its London base.
The focus was Matt Gunderson, the Republican challenger to three-term Democratic incumbent Rep. Mike Levin.
The article noted Gunderson’s pro-choice stance on abortion (which itself has been challenged).
But correspondent Morgan Phillips highlighted a Gunderson touted poll in the 49th Congressional District in the coastal region straddling North County and southern Orange County.
“Matt Gunderson is currently neck-and-neck with incumbent Democrat Mike Levin in the race for California’s 49th district, according to campaign polling obtained by DailyMail.com,” Phillips wrote last Wednesday.
Poll in Press Release
In fact, the Gunderson campaign sent a news release that day titled “Poll Shows Toss-Up Race Heading into General Election in CA-49.”
“With a winning environment for Gunderson evident among voters and the businessman’s strong performance among swing voters, it is clear CA-49 is primed to flip in November,” said the release — which former House Speaker Newt Gingrich also trumpeted.
The poll itself has questionable authority, however.
It’s produced by a group called 1892 LLC, led by Poway Councilman Brian Pepin — the Republican political director of the San Diego Lincoln Club. (The site says: “Our approach is simple: study the electorate, build a winning coalition analysis to get you to 51%, then devise and execute a custom plan to achieve that objective.”)
The internal poll, conducted April 9-11, said 44% of “likely voters” favor Levin with 42% for Gunderson and 14% undecided. The poll had a 4.88% margin of error (meaning Levin could draw anywhere from 49% to 39% of the November vote).
But Levin won the March primary with 51% of the vote. Gunderson was the top vote-getter of four Republicans with 25.7% of those casting ballots.
Times of San Diego sought details of the poll, including the wording of its questions, crucial in judging its fairness.
Poll Details Scarce
Pollster 1892 senior vice president Pepin declined to respond on specifics.
But Lance Trover, spokesperson for the GOP hopeful, said Monday: “The Gunderson campaign’s use of one of the Republican Party’s most trusted national polling firms has proven accurate and impactful in the primary election, and we are encouraged by our most recent poll as we prepare for the General Election.”
On the Levin side came a brief comment by consultant Adam Berkowitz.
Reacting to the poll, he said: “It is a competitive district as it has been for the last three elections.”
How do experts regard 1892 LLC?
According to pollster ratings by the 538 site, 1892 Polling has a transparency score of 0.7 on a scale with 10 the best. Its “poll score” is 0.1, where negative scores are prized. (Top-ranked New York Times-Sienna College poll has a score of -1.5. with a transparency score of 8.7).
A three-star “538 rating” is the best possible. 1892 Polling was given one star and a grade of B/C.
Only one recent poll was analyzed, however. It wasn’t specified.
UC San Diego political science professor Thad Kousser says candidates use internal polls to try to reshape the narrative around a campaign.
“Challengers often want to say, ‘Hey look, I’ve got a real shot here — send me some money,'” Kousser said via email.
But a strong incumbent may release a poll making things look closer than they really are, he said.
Such favorites use polls to say: “Hey look, I’ve got a real fight on my hands, send me some money,” Kousser said. “In both instances, this is aimed more at potential donors than it is at voters.”
Bottom line?
“There is little evidence one way or another on their effectiveness,” he said.
The authoritative House ratings by the Cook Political Report places Levin in a district called “likely Democrat.” (Democrats make up 37.5% and Republicans 33.6% of the half-million registered voters in CA-49.)
Says UCSD’s Kousser: “I continue to believe that Mike Levin is in a strong position in 2024, certainly stronger than he has been in past elections. But if there is a major Republican surge across the country, he could face a challenge in this still-purple district.”
Longtime local politics observer Carl Luna, a professor at the University of San Diego, has similar takes.
On why candidates promote “internal” polls, he said: “It’s like the old lawyer’s adage: Cite the evidence; if that doesn’t work, cite the law; and if that doesn’t work, bang the table loudly. For campaigns, cite genuine, vetted polls if they work for you. If not, cite an internal poll.”
But Luna says that six months out from the election, even vetted polls only take you so far.
“The goal in releasing internal polling like this is to show that your campaign has relevance by a) catching some media attention, even if it is a process story; and b) opening a few more wallets to keep you viable until the real polls show movement,” he said Tuesday via email.
Do polls ever move the needle with voters or donors?
Luna wrote: “Emoji shrug. One the one hand, releasing internal polls can be used in outreach to cajole a few more dollars out of dedicated donors. On the other, it can be seen as a sign of growing desperation as the campaign heads towards an inevitable outcome.”
As far as Gunderson’s chances of victory, Luna says the general rule is: You win three terms and you’re good for life.
“Unless Trump generates coattails as big as his ties,” he says, “this fall the seat stays blue and Gunderson continues as a perennial candidate looking for relevance outside of local party machine politics.”
Updated at 9:56 a.m. April 30, 2024