A new poll released Friday by the Institute of Governmental Studies at UC Berkely shows likely voters backing Gov. Gavin Newsom by a margin of 60% to 38% in the Sept. 14 recall election.
That compares to a much closer 50% to 47% when the institute fielded a similar poll just six weeks ago.
Poll Director Mark DiCamillo noted a big increase in Democratic voter enthusiasm since the last poll.
“Nearly four in ten of the likely voters said they had already voted at the time the latest poll was conducted and these early voters are giving Newsom a substantial lead, and are voting against the recall more than two to one,” he wrote in a poll analysis.
The poll found that voters favoring the recall were more likely to wait and cast votes in person, but “their numbers do not appear to be anywhere near enough to change the outcome,” DiCamillo wrote.
Among the Republican challengers, Larry Elder continued to lead with 38% of likely voters supporting him, followed by 8% for former San Diego Mayor Kevin Faulconer and 4% for Rancho Santa Fe businessman John Cox.
The poll was conducted online in English and Spanish Aug. 30-Sept. 6 among a random sample of 9,809 registered voters across California, of whom a weighted subset of 6,550 were considered likely to vote in the recall election.