The poll by Strategies 360 showed Gloria with 41% to Bry’s 26% among likely voters, with 33% of respondents undecided.
“I’m honored that San Diegans continue to believe in me and our campaign’s vision of building a better San Diego for all of us,” said Gloria in releasing the poll. “We aren’t taking any vote for granted. With just 88 days left until election day, we are going to be working hard to connect with residents in every neighborhood and earn every vote.”
The polling firm concluded that Bry is nearly as well-known among voters as Gloria at 73% to 83%, but Gloria is more popular. The poll showed him with a 42%to 22% favorable-unfavorable rating while Bry was at 28% to 20%.
“Gloria’s advantage is built on a strong center-left coalition that features leads among both Democratic and independent voters,” the firm said in a memo about the poll.
Tom Shepard, an advisor to the Bry campaign, cautioned “polls conducted and released by political campaigns are notoriously misleading” and pointed out that an independent poll in June sponsored by the conservative Lincoln Club showed Gloria with only a 3-point lead that evaporated when respondents were provided more information about each candidate.
Gloria is a former City Councilmember, City Council President, and Interim Mayor. If elected in November, he would be the first person-of-color and the first LGBT person elected Mayor in the city’s history.
Strategies 360 surveyed 406 likely November 2020 voters in the city of San Diego between July 15 and 19 using a combination of landlines, cell phones, and online interviews. The margin of error is 4.9 percentage points.
The polling firm is headquartered in Seattle and has a San Diego office. The national political news site fivethirtyeight.com gives the firm a “B/C” rating, noting it has called 63% of races correctly and tends to slightly over-count Republicans.
Updated at 12:05 p.m., Thursday, Aug. 6, 2020