Voters who are dropping off mail ballots faced long lines Tuesday at the County Registrar of Voters Office. Photo by Chris Stone

Some predictions were on point Tuesday as San Diego’s voter turnout was at an historic low.

Countywide, out of  more than 1.5 million registered voters, only 509,214 voters cast a ballot — a turnout of 33 percent, according to election results from the California Secretary of State.

Analysts at the National University System Institute for Policy Research had predicted a 34 to 38 percent voter turnout. In its report, the institute cites combination of demographic shifts, technology advances and voting reform for the low turnout.

San Diego County Registrar of Voters Michael Vu had projected a turnout between 48 to 51 percent and stuck to his prediction Tuesday night, according to KPBS.

There are about 180,000 absentee and provisional ballots still yet to be counted. If all 180,000 votes were determined to be valid, that would raise the turnout to 44.5 percent — still lower than Vu’s projection.

Though Vince Vasquez of NUSIPR said after all is said and done, he expects to turnout to be around 40 percent.

Much has been made about Asian-American voters in this election because this is the first election for the newly formed Asian district and both candidates for that district’s City Council seat are of Asian descent. District 6 is approximately 36 percent Asian, but only 19 percent or so of those are registered voters.

Based on early mail-in ballot results, Vasquez projected the Asian turnout to be 0.5 to 2 percent below registered — around 17 percent, he said.

After all the provisional votes are counted, “we expect numbers to remain the same,” Vasquez said. “The campaigns probably didn’t go out of their way to reach these voters.”

The turnout in District 6, however, will be higher than the rest of the county because of the highly contentious California 52nd Congressional District race between Carl DeMaio and Scott Peters and  because it has the only contested City Council race.

These voters got extra get-out-the-vote attention and Vasquez is predicting a 47 to 48 percent turnout. District 6 and the 52nd District have overlapping boundaries.

In particular, Mira Mesa, the heart of District 6, will probably have a slightly higher than average turnout for the district, Vasquez said.

Statewide, less than 30 percent of registered voter went to the poll, according to the Secretary of State.

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