Elections aren’t won as a result of people sitting behind computer screens arguing with those already on their side. Clicking the like button is not campaigning, nor is it moving the needle for a candidate or cause.
In no prior California election do I recall so many wasted words — mostly on social media — used to debate the difference between two Republicans with little to no chance of becoming Governor.
The relative qualifications of Chad Bianco and Steve Hilton don’t matter. The ability to win in a general election is the only thing that does.
Neither has the ability to win. Why not? Well, that’s the reality of California politics.
Two Republicans are never going to finish as the top two in the primary election. That’s too many people discussing and debating a pipe dream.
Assuming one Republican does make it through the primary, that candidate will be annihilated in November. Voter registration alone dictates the outcome.
Let’s start by looking at changes to California voter registration over the last 26 years:
In a nutshell, Democratic registration has barely changed, while Republican registration has dropped by about 10 points.
In 2000, the margin between Dems and Reps was about 10.5 percentage points. Now, Dems have a nearly 20-point registration advantage.
Decline-to-state (DS) voter registration is now over eight points higher than it was in 2000, as younger, independent voters show disdain for party labels. That trend, however, has not impacted Dem registration; it has only been to the detriment of GOP registration.
Let’s be clear. Voters are not failing to register with the GOP so they can then go out and overwhelmingly support Republican candidates.
As a result, over the last four governor elections — a period in which GOP registration slid from 31% to 25% — no Republican candidate for Governor exceeded 41% of the vote in November.
Many will argue all this “registration numbers talk” is irrelevant, that other factors will drive a significant shift this year in favor of a Republican. Among those factors:
Economy/gas prices driving crossover votes — Negative economic factors will supposedly drive masses of usually partisan voters to reject Democratic leadership, joining hordes of independent voters to vote Republican and make up for the registration disadvantage.
However, partisan voters — those who always end up voting for their party’s candidate — will still do so. Most voters simply do not translate any negative perceptions of their well-being into being the fault of their own party.
Yes, there’s always a certain amount of cross-over voting. But such nuances mean something in close, competitive races, not in elections that start as a blowout before the votes are cast.
Voter turn-out — The hope is Republicans will turn out to vote in significant numbers while Democrats “stay home.” Again, in no statewide elections does this ever take place. Even a few percentage points difference in turnout between parties doesn’t close the significant registration gap. In a competitive, local election, yes, but not with a 20-point difference.
The Trump endorsement — Donald Trump’s support of Hilton will drive the former Fox News host to victory, is the thought. In the primary, that endorsement means something, not in a general election. The Trump support motivates his base at least as much as it motivates those who detest him.
The last two “Trump-era” GOP candidates for Governor, John Cox and Brian Dahle, have done no better than their predecessors.
I can’t ignore why many will say I’m absolutely correct, but for the wrong reason:
Voter fraud — The increasingly common “go to” when you can’t win is to blame a fraudulent, rigged system. But, voter fraud, where and when it exists, impacts close elections, not blowouts. There is no reason for anyone to implement a widespread vote fraud conspiracy in a state where there’s absolutely no need for one.
All these realities don’t change anything drastically from one election to the next. Trends take years to play out. The Republican registration decline didn’t happen overnight, it’s been a long downward trend.
Yet, having a Republican candidate at the top of the ballot still helps motivate GOP turnout enough that it impacts competitive down-ballot races, where the previously mentioned nuances do mean something to outcomes.
Voting does matter, significantly, whether or not the top spot is out of reach.
I know Republicans will hate this message. As well, the “consultant class” doesn’t like this kind of talk, as they often make money by convincing candidates with no chance to raise and spend money anyway.
That’s simply part of the reality.
If Republicans don’t like this reality, the long upward trend of change has to start somewhere. It starts with getting off social media, where activists are wasting their time arguing with others in their own party about Hilton vs. Bianco, and instead getting out and doing something that actually has an impact on winning elections.
Barry Jantz, a longtime Republican, is a former La Mesa City Councilmember and past CEO of Grossmont Healthcare District. He is now a community affairs consultant. A version of this op-ed originally appeared on San Diego Rostra.
