Once again, President Biden is preparing to take on Donald Trump, in a June 27 presidential debate. In perhaps the most highly polarized election period of all time, Trump, a convicted felon with a penchant for mendacity, will be his divisive self that America knows well.
But perhaps Americans do not yet know who Biden can be when not in defense mode, mitigating a barrage of international crises and political storms. To persuade a weary electorate, Biden will need to rise above Trump’s drama and present a compelling, proactive platform.
Of all issues facing Americans today, there’s one that would spark interest in a plurality of reluctant voters: the national security threat posed by Mexican criminal organizations. A U.S.-Mexico joint policy proposal to combat the drug cartels would simultaneously address at least three overlapping voter concerns — immigration, border security, and the fentanyl crisis.
A Pew Research Center poll revealed U.S. voters care about illegal drugs, terrorism, crime and immigration. Their top 20 concerns did not include Trump’s legal troubles or preserving democracy, as serious as those issues are.
During his four-year term, president Biden has lost Latino voters, many of whom have fled from countries where the rule of law is rendered obsolete by the political power of criminal organizations. Recent polls show Latino voters are increasingly concerned about border security and crime. And the Latino vote has the power to decide swing states like Florida, Nevada and Arizona.
Experts have called the Mexican cartels the most serious national security issue facing the US today. International criminal organizations operating in Mexico profit from the business of kidnappings, illegal migrant transport, and the lucrative fentanyl industry produced in Mexico and smuggled over the US border. Nearly 75,000 Americans died from Fentanyl overdoses in 2023.
In Mexico, criminal organizations have the upper hand in many territories. Mexico’s governing system is a complex hierarchy of power-sharing between criminal and legitimate institutions which expert Max Daly calls a “duopoly.” By some estimates, 9 out of 32 regions have ceded control of their territory and institutions to the cartels.
In reality, the cartels are involved in all aspects of the Mexican economy and life and pose a terrifying danger to Mexicans, who often face the choice of paying bribes, working for the cartels, or being killed or abducted. The murder count during the six-year term of outgoing president, Andrés Manuel Lopez Obrador, was 170,000, the highest in recent Mexican history.
His security policy “Hugs, not Bullets”, aimed to avoid conflict with the cartels, allowing the threat to multiply. In 2023, over 2 million illegal immigrants crossed the Mexico-US border, many of them escaping drug violence, extortion and kidnappings.
The election of Mexico’s first female president on June 2 represents a historic opportunity for Biden. Though perhaps for political expediency, Claudia Sheinbaum promises to continue anti-democratic policies of her predecessor, she has also expressed more openness to collaboration with the U.S. than her mentor. As mayor of Mexico City, Sheinbaum quietly cooperated with U.S. security forces, which resulted in significant progress combating crime in the capital, a plan that could be replicated on the national level.
To be sure, prior U.S./Mexico joint anti-drug operations have yielded mixed results. Despite success in capturing cartel kingpins, analysts warn the top down approach of the Merida initiative, a 12-year U.S.-Mexico anti-drug program, resulted in power vacuums that allowed multiple smaller organizations to emerge. Issues of mutual trust made cooperation difficult.
But there is a terrific precedent to emulate — the outstanding success of “Plan Colombia” from 2000 to 2016. The joint U.S.-Colombia security initiative trained Colombia’s security and anti-narcotics forces, elevated its democratic institutions and helped eradicate violence and impunity. Plan Colombia essentially transformed the drug capital of the world into a thriving economy and safe place to live and visit.
The key to Plan Colombia’s success was leverage and trust, two central concepts in international relations. Instead of Mexico’s continued leveraging the highly politicized border issue for its own interests, the U.S. should condition aid as leverage over Mexico, insisting on shared intelligence, ability to vet security agents, higher payment for Mexican judges, and cooperation to secure the border.
Mexico is the U.S.’s no. 1 trading partner, neighbor and cultural friend. But without vast improvements in security, further investment in Mexico’s infrastructure will become increasingly precarious.
A smart Mexico policy proposal would showcase Biden’s will to stand up to criminality in America’s backyard. It would fill the discursive vacuum created by Trump’s lies and half-truths, helping Biden win the debate. Breaking through the calcified polarization of American politics today, Biden must prioritize a stronger and safer America — and Mexico — for tomorrow.
Kristina Foltz is a Rotary Scholar who writes on disinformation and populism in Latin America. Follow her at @kristinafoltz1.
