Two weeks ago Vladimir Putin initiated the most significant conflict in Europe since World War II. By air, land, sea and cyber and attacking from three directions — north, south and east — Putin’s objective is to erase Ukraine as an independent sovereign state.
In scenes reminiscent of the Second World War, battles for the capital Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities are underway, with Russian bombs, rockets and artillery destroying homes, hospitals and historic sites.
Although outnumbered and outgunned, Ukraine’s military is fighting tenaciously and offering fierce resistance. Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky rejected President Biden’s offer of evacuation from Kyiv, saying, “I need ammunition, not a ride,” and is pleading with the United States, NATO, and Europe to impose stronger sanctions and supply Ukraine with weapons.
As this tragedy unfolds, the Biden administration confronts two irreconcilable realities. Biden cannot and should not send the U.S. military to fight in Ukraine, nor can he allow Putin to succeed in erasing Ukraine as a free and sovereign state.
If Biden deploys troops in Ukraine or establishes a no-fly zone, the conflict could escalate from a regional war to a much broader, more destructive conflict. We must remember that Russia has nuclear weapons and Putin’s nuclear forces are already on high alert. On the other hand, if Putin achieves his strategic goals of subjugating Ukraine, we may expect similar aggression against NATO states that share a border with Russia.
What, if anything, can the Biden administration do?
During the first week of the war, Biden outlined his policy for confronting Putin. First, thousands of additional soldiers are on their way to reinforce American and NATO forces already in Eastern Europe.
Second, the President is continuing his policy of gradual escalation in the economic war against Putin, with increasing sanctions targeting Russia’s financial institutions, Russian oligarchs, and Putin himself. But the President has reiterated that American service members would not fight in Ukraine.
However, Biden has admitted that “no one expected the sanctions to prevent anything from happening” and that ultimately it would take “another month or so to see if they’re working.” Germany and other European states have piled on with sanctions, but even this new wave of sanctions is unlikely to compel Putin to stop the war.
We do not know what will happen in Ukraine. We don’t know how long conventional fighting will last, nor how long Ukraine’s armed forces can continue resisting, nor if peace talks will produce peace. What we do know is that sanctions alone, no matter how “severe,” will not drive Putin out of Ukraine.
If economic sanctions are not the solution, what can The United States and its NATO allies do?
The United States must do to Russia in Ukraine what it did to the Soviet Union during its war in Afghanistan in the 1980s—continue to arm Ukraine’s resistance and if necessary, finance and arm an insurgency. The war in Ukraine will not be a short one.
Although the conventional war may end in weeks or months, Putin will find himself occupying a hostile population, and an insurgency is sure to develop. As Russia’s history in Afghanistan and our recent history in Iraq and Afghanistan demonstrate, insurgencies have a strong chance of evicting their opponents from their countries when supported from the outside.
Biden and western powers have already provided defensive weapons to Ukraine. The United States sent an additional $350 million worth of weapons, and NATO and European Union countries are sending thousands of anti-tank and anti-aircraft missiles to the embattled Ukrainians.
Keeping Putin occupied and bogged down in Ukraine will prevent him from focusing on the small Baltic states and give Ukraine a chance to remain a free and independent state.
Biden and the NATO alliance must continue to answer Zelensky’s call for ammunition and weapons. If we can give the Ukrainians the tools, they can finish the job. Our ability to contain Putin and have peace in Europe depends on it.
Dr. Ricardo A. Crespo is a tenure-track instructor in the Department of Political Economy
at Grossmont College.
