The snow is still settling on the 2016 Iowa caucuses, but Monday’s results make very clear who the losers and winners are at this stage in the Presidential race.
Loser — Donald Trump. The casino magnate and reality TV star who publicly dismissed so many people as losers was himself one on Monday night. He may still dominate media attention, but voters will know that he’s not automatically a winner.
Winner — Ted Cruz. The senator from Texas worked tirelessly in the Hawkeye State, visiting all 99 counties. Unlike Trump’s recent conversion to religion (“2 Corinthians”), Cruz is a true evangelical Christian, and that fact appeared to ultimately resonate with Iowa voters. Also unlike Trump, Cruz actually has experience in government.
Winner — Marco Rubio. The senator from Florida didn’t the win the caucuses, but he came very close to beating Donald Trump. He’s now clearly the establishment candidate to watch. In California, San Diego Mayor Kevin Faulconer is on his state committee, and Rep. Darrell Issa has been campaigning for him.
Winner — Hillary Clinton. Her margin of victory was razor thin, but to pull off a victory in a primary she lost in 2008 ensures the former Secretary of State remains the Democratic candidate to beat — and still very likely the next President.
Loser — Bernie Sanders. Iowa has a reputation for being the most liberal of farm states, so it’s no surprise that the self-described socialist from Vermont did well, especially among younger voters. But this loss, however small, will dent his momentum.
Winner — Political parties and organizations. With all of the media attention focused on Trump, it seemed as if America’s political parties had lost their influence, and traditional get-out-the-vote operations weren’t important. Cruz and Clinton’s victories and Rubio’s strong third place showed the continuing power of America’s two political parties and the time-honored process of making individual connections with voters.
Loser — Opinion polling in a world of cellphones and caller ID. Americans simply don’t answer phones and participate in opinion polls they way they once did. But modern workarounds like Internet polls aren’t an effective replacement. The U.S. isn’t alone in this; British pollsters were wildly wrong in 2014 predicting the Scots would vote for independence. In the end, only the actual votes count.
Winner — The Iowa voters. When all the rallies and television ads were over, the voters braved a blizzard and ignored the polls and voted for who they thought would make the best President. Once again, America is reminded of the power of democracy and the fact that voters are always smarter than they’re given credit for.
Chris Jennewein is editor and publisher of Times of San Diego. He has covered Presidential elections since Nixon vs. McGovern in 1972.
