The National Weather Service issued a tropical storm watch for San Diego County Oct. 9 through Oct. 13. Residents can expect heavy rainfall, high winds and powerful waves, potentially causing flooding and damage along the coastline.
High winds are expected to start Saturday evening, potentially causing localized power outages across Southern California, including San Diego, according to AccuWeather. The storm also could bring down trees and trigger flash flooding as heavy rain moves into the Southwest.
Tropical storm force winds of at least 34 mph are expected Sunday, Oct. 11, arriving as early as Saturday night, according to the National Weather Service. Coastal communities can expect six-to-ten-foot waves, heightening erosion risks. The agency warns “very strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could capsize or damage vessels.”
Tropical Storm Rachel is fueling this wet weather. As of Friday morning, Oct. 9, the storm is approaching San Diego from about 900 miles west of the southern tip of Baja California.
AccuWeather meteorologist Tyler Roys warned that Rachel’s wind and heavy rain could cause flash flooding, downed trees and localized power outages across the southwest United States.
Rachel is the first of two storm systems that could affect San Diego County. Early next week, Hurricane Simon could bring additional rainfall to the Southwest.
“We really have to take these two systems one at a time. Rachel’s wind and heavy rain will have a clean path into the southwest and could lead to flash flooding, downed trees and localized power outages,” AccuWeather meteorologist Tyler Roys said. “There is more uncertainty around Simon. It is possible that Simon significantly slows down or stalls near the Mexican coast. In this case, less moisture would stream into the U.S., reducing the risk of flooding.”
But the storm’s trajectory remains uncertain, with a possible northward turn raising the risk of more severe impacts across Southern California.
In a Friday analysis, Daniel Swain, a weather and climate scientist and founder of Weather West, said Rachel could strengthen slightly as it approaches the California-Mexico border. Swain attributed the unusual possibility to exceptionally warm Pacific Ocean temperatures, which are more than 10 degrees Fahrenheit above average in the storm’s projected path.
Scripps Institution of Oceanography measured sea surface temperatures to be 73 degrees Fahrenheit at the Scripps Pier on Oct. 9, tied for the hottest temperature ever recorded on the day.
The record-warm waters reflect a combination of strong El Niño conditions, a preexisting marine heat wave and long-term warming from human-caused climate change, wrote weather expert Swain.
Although Tropical Storm Rachel’s precise path and intensity remain uncertain, Swain warned that a more northerly trajectory could bring stronger winds, heavy rainfall and significant coastal flooding to San Diego and surrounding areas.
The first-ever tropical storm warning in San Diego was issued ahead of Tropical Storm Hilary in August 2023. Heavy rainfall and high winds hammered the county, and flooding along the San Diego River required swift-water rescues for 13 people.
This time, the City of San Diego is preparing for potential flooding as Rachel approaches. In an Oct. 9 press release, the city warned that the combination of rain and high tides could cause localized flooding in low-lying areas around Midway, Mission Beach and other coastal neighborhoods.
“Road closures are anticipated, especially in the Midway area at Frontage Road and Pacific Coast Highway,” the release said.
The city recommends residents reduce their flooding risk by clearing debris from storm drains, keeping trash bins away from curbs and avoiding floodwaters while traveling.
“Our teams are working diligently to prepare the City’s stormwater system for the incoming rain, but community preparedness is just as critical, especially with El Niño in the forecast,” said Stormwater Department Director Todd Snyder. “By taking a few simple steps now, residents can significantly reduce the potential impacts of the storm.”
