Fashion Valley in Mission Valley
Fashion Valley in Mission Valley. Courtesy Simon Property Group

The economy has shown signs of improvement and retailers are well-stocked, but consumers are spending less, so bargain hunters in Southern California may find more Black Friday deals this holiday season, according to a Chapman University economist.

“Retailers have plenty of goods to sell, but consumers are not spending as much,” said Raymond Sfeir, director of the A. Gary Anderson Center for Economic Research. “So there will be a lot of good deals on Friday.”

Last year, sales increased 5.3%, but this year Sfeir estimated they may only go up by 4%.

Sfeir said many consumers still see higher-than-expected prices at the grocery store so it dampens their buying confidence.

He said big-ticket items like furniture and cars are down as well as building materials and gardening equipment.

“Part of the reason is people buy furniture and cars by borrowing money but the interest rates are high,” Sfeir said.

Consumers are ramping up spending on various services, “but not as much on goods,” he said. “They’re willing to spend money on restaurants or Disneyland, but not as much on real goods, manufactured goods.”

Though Black Friday spending is likely to be down, police presence will increase amid a statewide rise in retail crime.

The California Highway Patrol is increasing its efforts to combat organized retail crime as the holiday shopping season begins, Gov. Gavin Newsom said Wednesday.

“The California Highway Patrol — working with allied agencies — is increasing enforcement efforts and conducting and supporting covert and confidential takedowns to stop these criminals in their tracks during the holiday season and year-round,” Newsom said.

City News Service contributed to this article.

Chris Jennewein is founder and senior editor of Times of San Diego.