Economists with the UCLA Anderson Forecast said Monday the U.S. economy has entered a recession, ending the expansion that began in July 2009, with California expected to lose 280,000 jobs.
After a solid start to 2020, the escalating impact of the coronavirus pandemic in March will cause gross national product to decline by 6.5% in the second quarter, with economic growth not resuming until the fourth quarter of the year, the economists said.
They said California faces a more severe downturn due to its reliance tourism and trans-Pacific transportation. The state is expected to lose more than 280,000 payroll jobs as unemployment rises to 6.3% by the end of the year.
The new forecast is based in part on a review of the impact of the 1957–58 H2N2 influenza pandemic on the U.S. economy.
“The revised forecast comes with an important caveat.” the economists said. “If the pandemic is much worse than assumed, this forecast will be too optimistic.”