The University of San Diego‘s latest economic forecast showed the second monthly decline in a row, raising concerns about a slowdown in the local economy.
The Burnham-Moores Center for Real Estate’s Index of Leading Economic Indicators for San Diego County, released last week, fell 0.2 percent in May following a decline of equal magnitude in April.
A decrease in help-wanted advertising, higher initial claims for unemployment insurance and a decline in residential building permits pushed the index down.
“Economists usually look for three moves in the same direction for a leading index to indicate a turning point in the economy,” wrote Professor Alan Gin in his report Thursday. “This hasn’t happened yet, so the outlook for the local economy remains positive for now.”
“But any number of things could adversely affect San Diego’s economy,” he added, “including rising gas prices, rising interest rates, high housing prices making it difficult for companies to attract and retain workers, a trade war leading to barriers against San Diego companies, local government budget problems, increased taxes on some San Diegans due to the 2017 tax reforms, and turmoil in the health care markets as elements of the Affordable Care Act are eliminated.”
It was the second negative local economic forecast released in June. The San Diego Regional Chamber of Commerce earlier reported that business optimism in the region had declined to a five-month low.
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