The latest UCLA Anderson Forecast predicts continued, though slower economic growth in California and nationwide, but warns of Presidential candidates who would “blow up” the global trading system.
The widely followed forecast, released early Wednesday morning, calls for a 2.7 percent growth rate in 2016 with the economy creating 2.4 million jobs this year and 1.5 million jobs next year.
Senior Economist David Shulman said recent fears of a national recession, fueled by the January to February drop in stock prices, have subsided. But he warned of a pair of major presidential candidates who want to “blow up” the global trading system.
“Economists might not know all that much,” Shulman says, “but trade wars usually do not lead to prosperity, quite the contrary.”
He didn’t mention the candidates by name, but was referring to Democrat Bernie Sanders and Republican Donald Tump. Both have called for trade barriers and, in particular, a renegotiation of the North American Fee Trade Agreement that covers Canada, Mexico and the United States.
The UCLA forecast calls for economic growth in California to exceed that of the U.S., with the state’s jobs growing by 1.9 percent in 2016, 1.6 percent in 2017 and 1.0 percent in 2018.
Senior Economist Jerry Nickelsburg said innovation in places like Silicon Valley is an important part of California’s growth.
“The critical mass developed with California’s research institutions will continue to provide the state with a disproportionate amount of innovation and therefore a faster rate of growth in GDP than the average for the U.S.,” he said.
UCLA Anderson School of Management is among the leading business schools in the world.