Currently the cash-strapped Metropolitan Transit System must reduce service. However, if MTS finds new funding — which is likely through a 2028 ballot measure — the agency could not only maintain existing service but also pay for new projects.
With potential funding in mind, the MTS website has an interactive poll asking the public which new projects to prioritize. The projects are priced in relative dollars out of an imaginary $100 total budget.
Below is a cheat sheet suggesting which projects to select, with project costs in parenthesis.
Recommended operational projects
MTS passengers rank frequency above all else. Frequency shortens travel times and enhances security. Most crimes on MTS happen on the trolley system, with two-thirds of those crimes happening at stations rather than on vehicles. Thus, it is crucial to minimize passenger wait time at stations by running trolleys more often ($22).
This would raise weekday frequencies on the Blue Line to 5 minutes and on other lines to 10 minutes. Running buses more often ($25) would increase bus frequencies to 10 minutes or better on busy routes, especially in Uptown and Mid-City, San Diego’s densest neighborhoods unserved by rail. Expand bus service hours ($2) would extend these frequencies to weekends and late nights.
Remaining operational dollars should fund security enhancements ($3) and continue the Youth Opportunity Pass ($4), which would keep fares free for youth 18 and under.
These choices make up $56 out of the imaginary $100. The rest should be spent on capital projects.
Recommended capital projects
The lowest-cost, highest-impact capital project is the Green Line to I-15 connection ($2). This would complete the biggest missing link in the MTS network by allowing I-15 corridor bus passengers to transfer to the trolley at Snapdragon Stadium. Consequently, all passengers from Escondido to City heights on the busy Rapid 235 bus would enjoy one-seat rides to stadium events and SDSU Mission Valley, the 15,000-student, 4,600-dwelling satellite campus under construction next to the stadium.
Travel time savings would be enormous. All 235 Rapid passengers originating north of Snapdragon Stadium would save 25 minutes on trips to SDSU Mission Valley and 15 minutes on trips to SDSU.
A project to expand bus-only lanes ($6) would take buses out of congestion on busy streets. This would increase bus speed and punctuality by minimizing delays. Rebuilding San Ysidro transit center ($4) would straighten and elevate trolley tracks from congested roads at San Diego’s second-busiest transit stop, further enhancing reliability and speed.
Raising or lowering trolley tracks ($22) would eliminate car delays by separating the trolley tracks from the street at 10 crossing locations. Grade-separating trolley tracks would also minimize collisions with pedestrians and cyclists, thus enhancing safety and trolley reliability.
The total for capital improvement comes to $34 of the imaginary $100, leaving $10 to spend on other projects.
Worthwhile with caveats
With San Diego’s airport exceptionally close to downtown, a trolley to airport ($14) would significantly grow ridership. However, these gains would be negated by the capacity, frequency and reliability bottleneck that the airport trolley would introduce on the existing Blue and Green lines. Green Line capacity and frequency could be halved — disastrous given Mission Valley’s breakneck transit-oriented densification.
Fortunately, rather than building the airport rail link as a trolley, San Diego might build it as an automated people mover instead for comparable cost. This would completely avoid bottlenecks on existing trolley Lines. Furthermore, a people mover could offer trips between the airport and downtown every two minutes, compared to every 7.5-10 minutes if the airport trolley were built.
Projects not to select
On-demand microtransit ($3) is glorified rideshare, with MTS defining it as “community-based services in lower density neighborhoods using smaller vehicles” (typically minivans). These low capacities and low densities lead to incredible inefficiency. North County Transit District’s microtransit costs $66.34 per passenger, for example.
I-5 transit ($8) would provide “express bus lanes between South Bay and downtown San Diego.” Unfortunately, such an express bus would actually have longer trip times and lower frequencies than the existing Blue Line Trolley. Therefore, rather than build an express bus, MTS should increase Blue Line frequencies to 5 minutes and implement downtown transit signal priority.
Quality before quantity
The San Diego Association of Governments should build new transit lines, but not before MTS receives funding for improving existing routes. The proposed Purple Line subway would require at least 15-20 years of planning and construction and cost $20 Billion, excluding operating expenses.
For far more immediate ridership gains, MTS should first double peak frequencies from 15 minutes to 7.5 minutes between downtown and University City. This would cost only $3.7 million in annual operating expenses. Capital expenses would be negligible, since MTS’ existing trolley fleet and track infrastructure already support 7.5 minute frequencies to University City.
San Diego must also prioritize maximizing frequencies on the Green and Orange lines and on busy bus routes. Otherwise, San Diego will resemble Denver, whose low-frequency 77-station rail network generates less than one-third the ridership of Calgary’s high-frequency, 45-station light rail system.
Alex Wong is a data researcher with RideSD, a nonprofit that promotes mass transit in San Diego.
