Every January, San Diego County releases its Point-in-Time Count of people experiencing homelessness. Soon after, headlines appear saying homelessness is down and things are getting better.
But for anyone who actually sees people living outside every day, that story doesn’t feel true.
That’s because the Point-in-Time Count does not count everyone who is homeless. It never has.
The count happens on one night each year. Volunteers and outreach workers go to certain areas and count people they can see and safely reach. If someone is not visible or is in a place volunteers are told not to enter, that person is usually not counted.
That matters more than most people realize.
Many people experiencing homelessness live in places like canyons, thick brush, under bridges or industrial areas. Some hide because they fear theft, assault or being forced to move. Others avoid contact because past experiences with enforcement or systems have taught them not to trust it.
If they are hidden, they are missed.
Another group that is not counted is people who are in jail on the night of the count.
Many unsheltered people are arrested for low-level offenses tied to survival, like sleeping outside, loitering or unpaid citations. If they are in custody on count night, they are not included, even though they were homeless just days or hours earlier and will likely return to homelessness after release.
They don’t stop being homeless. They just stop being counted.
Families and young people are also undercounted. Many are “doubled up,” staying temporarily with friends or relatives. This is one of the most common forms of homelessness for children, yet these families are mostly invisible in the count.
Enforcement also affects the numbers.
In the weeks before the count, encampment clean-ups, park enforcement and vehicle dwelling crackdowns often increase. People don’t disappear; they move. They scatter into harder-to-find places that volunteers are not sent to.
That makes homelessness less visible, not less real.
Federal officials openly say the Point-in-Time Count is a minimum estimate, not a full count. Still, local leaders often treat it like proof that policies are working. That is misleading.
The count also affects funding. Federal homelessness money is tied to these numbers. When funding and reputation depend on showing improvement, there is pressure to make the data look good instead of asking hard questions.
You don’t have to change the numbers to change the outcome. You just decide where people are counted, where they are not, and when enforcement happens.
The result is a cleaner report and the same people still living outside.
San Diego can do better. We should track homelessness year-round, not just one night. We should count people moving between the street, shelters, hospitals and jail. We should listen to people with lived experience and look where people actually survive, not just where it is convenient.
Progress is not a smaller number on a spreadsheet. Progress is fewer people sleeping outside, hiding or being arrested just for trying to live.
Until we measure homelessness honestly, we will keep building solutions that leave people behind.
David Myers is a retired San Diego Sheriff’s commander with 35 years law enforcement experience. He also served as director of safety and security for Jewish Family Service of San Diego.
