Iowa is a small, largely rural state. It’s population is 3.2 million — a little less than the population of San Diego County.
On Monday, just 110,000 people — about 15% of registered Republican voters, and just 4% of the state’s population — turned out to caucus, picking Donald Trump as the Republican Party’s nominee for president.
Ironically, on the holiday honoring Martin Luther King Jr., they chose a man who questioned the birth of America’s first Black president, Barack Obama.
Turnout was down. Exceptionally cold weather was blamed. In 2016, 187,000 turned out.
To put those numbers in a California perspective, turnout in 2016 was roughly equivalent to the population of Oceanside. In 2024, it was equal to the population of Carlsbad.
Thousands more voters — nearly 136,000 — cast ballots in San Diego County’s special elections on Nov. 7 for District 4 supervisor and Chula Vista City Attorney.
So what does the Iowa result mean for the Republican Party, and for the general election? Does Trump’s success in Iowa mean he will automatically be the Republican candidate and then coast to victory in the general election?
Exit polling sheds some light on what might happen. Edison Research found that 66% of those caucusing said they did not think President Biden won legitimately, 65% said Trump would still be fit to be president if he were convicted of a crime, and 61% said they favor a federal law banning abortion nationwide.
Does that sound like a cross section of America?
Keep in mind that every state ballot measure to legalize abortion in the wake of the Supreme Court overturning Roe v. Wade — which Trump celebrated — has ended in victory for pro-choice advocates. Even in neighboring Kansas, the vote was 59% to 41%.
And keep in mid that just 28% of voters nationwide say they are members of the Republican Party.
Rural Iowa may epitomize the MAGA wing of the Republican Party. But it isn’t America.
Chris Jennewein is editor and publishers of Times of San Diego.
