In right-wing conservative circles it’s an article of faith that Russia will prevail in its effort to conquer Ukraine. MAGA talking heads cite Russia’s population, its economy and its nuclear weapons to argue that Western aid simply postpones the inevitable.
Unfortunately, they’re recalling a Russian heyday that was probably itself a mirage.
In fact, the modern country that is closest to Russia in population and economic output is our southern neighbor, Mexico. It is ironically a country much maligned by the same pro-Russian conservatives.
According to United Nations data, Russia ranks ninth among all countries in population at 144 million and Mexico tenth at 128 million. Mexico’s population is growing, while Russia’s is declining amid a collapse in the birth rate.
According to International Monetary Fund figures, Russia ranks eleventh in economic output at $2.1 trillion while Mexico comes in fourteenth with $1.7 trillion. Ranking in between Russia and Mexico are South Korea and Australia.
So Russia is no economic behemoth with an inexhaustible population. It’s a medium-sized economy with an aging population.
While it is large enough in area to be economically self sufficient, this autarky is achieved with obsolescent technology. For example, Russia’s semiconductor industry — crucial for modern weapons — is decades behind the West.
But what about its military power? During decades under communism its people suffered so that their leaders could build a powerful military. But the war in Ukraine has drained Russian troops and equipment, with reports that Ukraine now has more tanks.
Finally, what about nuclear weapons? Both Russia and the United State have 1,700 deployed. But a factor often looked is that unlike simple artillery shells, complex nuclear weapons deteriorate. With testing banned, scientists must use supercomputer simulations and other advanced techniques to ensure these weapons work.
The Department of Energy — a department much maligned by MAGA conservatives — spends $20 billion a year maintaining the U.S. “enduring stockpile” to ensure our weapons are “safe, secure, and reliable.” Is Russia, with an economy just 8% of the U.S. $26.9 trillion, spending as much? The experience in Ukraine suggests not.
“Putin’s already lost the war,” said President Biden after this week’s NATO conference. “Putin has a real problem — how does he move from here?”
It’s past time to stop overestimating Russia — and to give more credit to our southern neighbor, Mexico.
Chris Jennewein is editor and publisher of Times of San Diego.
