National and local economists told North County business and community leaders Wednesday that no recession looms in 2016 but the local labor market is tightening and job growth could slow.
“We continue to look for the economy to grow around 2 percent,” said Mark Vitner, Wells Fargo‘s Charlotte-based senior economist. “Domestic demand remains strong, which will help offset sluggish global growth.”
Josh Williams, president of BW Research Partnership in Carlsbad, said the unemployment rate in North County has dropped from 7.8 percent to 4.4 percent over the last three years.
“While this is generally construed as a positive indicator for job-seekers, it is low enough that is could become a problem for employers as they look for new talent and to hire new workers,” he said.
“We’re not going to add jobs at the same pace as the last three years,” observed Vintner.
Vitner and Williams spoke at the North County Economic Development Corp.‘s 3rd annual North County Economic Summit. The event drew more than 400 people to the Omni La Costa Resort & Spa in Carlsbad.
Williams said companies in the aerospace, defense, pharmaceuticals and brewing industries are driving growth in manufacturing employment in North County as the region changes from a “bedroom community economy to a more dynamic export-oriented industry base.” But he noted that within the region, the north inland area is lagging in job growth.
Vitner said Wells Fargo’s forecasting models show the chance of recession at comfortably under 30 percent. He acknowledged that consumers are worried about a potential rerun of the 2008 economic collapse, noting that “you can still count the number of up days the stock market has had.”
But he said the pullback in the stock market was due to uncertainty surrounding the slowing economy in China, not to any fundamental problem in the United States.
“Their data is not what I would call 100 percent forthright,” he said, saying economists and stock traders really don’t know what is happening in China, the world’s second-largest economy.
