The Padres, after a season of distinct ups and downs, now have full control of their own playoff destiny.
Heading into the games of Sept. 11, the team led the D-backs by a half game for the third and final National League Wild Card spot. They are now four games up after going 6-1 on a just concluded road trip through Denver and San Francisco while the D-backs were 2-4 at home against the Rangers and Marlins.
There are nine games to play for each team, with a head-to-head three-game series between the two during the season’s final weekend Sept. 25-27 at Petco Park.
It could all be decided by then.
“That was our goal going in,” Padres manager Craig Stammen said on Thursday after the Padres whipped the Rockies, 9-2, at Coors Field. “You want to clinch as quickly as possible. So, we have six big games before we play the D-backs. And we have to take care of business in those six games just like we did on this road trip.”
The Padres are actually closer to catching the Phillies and Cubs, which are tied in the Wild Card standings, than they are to the D-backs, trailing by only a game. The prize is a best-of three Wild Card series on successive days from Sept. 29 to Oct. 1. If the Padres somehow finish atop the Cubs and Phillies, they’ll host the series at Petco Park, a huge added dividend.
The No. 1 tie breaker, though, is head-to-head records. The Phillies and Cubs hold both over the Padres, the Phillies, 6-0, and the Cubs, 5-1. The Cubs hold the tie breaker over the Phils, 5-1.
But that’s all peering a bit too far ahead.
In the immediate future, the Padres have three games at home against the Marlins this weekend and three more against the Dodgers in Los Angeles, prior to the Arizona series. Meanwhile, the D-backs have three games vs. the Yankees at Chase Field and three more against the Rockies at Coors.
Looking back, San Diego came up big when it meant the most. Their recent 9-1 run includes an eight-game winning streak and a 10-4 September record.
“I think we looked at this part of the schedule and knew we had to play well,” Stammen said. “We had to take care of business, which is not always the easy thing to do, especially at Coors Field. You have teams that are fighting for their lives, players who are trying to prove their worth. Good to end this trip on a high note and head back home in a good spot.”
In contrast, the D-backs have lost five of their last seven and are 7-7 this month. The timing couldn’t have been worse for them to go flat.
“As for the team we are very well aware of what’s going on. We know we are in an absolute dogfight and every game matters,” beleaguered Arizona manager Torey Lovullo said after his club dropped a 4-3 decision to the Marlins on Wednesday night at Chase. “We have to get some balance back and win a game.”
The Padres, who were 48-50 on July 18 just after the All-Star break, are 36-19 since then. Their starting pitching, which was plagued with injuries, is in great shape heading into the postseason with Michael King, Walker Buehler, Casey Mize, Robbie Ray and Nick Pivetta clicking on all cylinders.
The offense, which was the worst in the league in July, has rebounded from an awful first half. They are 18th in Major League Baseball with a .242 batting average a .715 OPS and 172 home runs. They are 19th with 688 runs scored.
It’s been a massive turnaround.
“It speaks to the length of the season,” Stammen said. “We talk a lot about that. There’s probably a different focus level at this time of the season, considering where we are in the schedule and pushing for the playoffs.”
Meanwhile, for the D-backs there’s a lot more on the line than just the playoffs. Lovullo is at the end of his current contract and there’s the sense he won’t be back if the D-backs fail to make the playoffs at the end of the season for the third year in a row.
During his 10-year tenure, the D-backs made the playoffs twice, losing to the Rangers in a five-game 2023 World Series. He was hired by current general manager Mike Hazen when the two came from Boston in 2017. They are close friends and tied at the hip. Since Hazen is under contract through 2028 there’s a real question whether he’ll also walk if he’s forced to jettison Lovullo.
There’s also the question of whether Lovullo has been as good as the players Hazen has given him. Only two players on Arizona’s roster would crack the current Padres lineup – right fielder Corbin Carroll and catcher Gabriel Moreno.
“Those are the next generation of players that are going to lead the way,” Lovullo said this week in an interview. “I know the Padres are linking up one through nine, that’s probably why they’re having such success offensively right now. Overall, we try to win every single inch on the field. That’s our mentality.”
The D-backs, though, unlike the Padres, are running out of time and inches.
