In preparation for a looming ‘Super’ El Niño, or “Godzilla El Niño” as others have coined it, the city is shoring up two of San Diego’s aging, water-level-restricted reservoirs. In 2025, the Division of Safety of Dams designated both Lake Hodges and Lake Murray as posing an “extremely high” downstream hazard if they fail.
Record-breaking heavy rainfall forced the city to release 11 billion gallons of water from Lake Hodges from 2023 to 2024, according to the Santa Fe Irrigation District in February 2024.
Lake Murray has not had a major release. Still, if it ever exceeds its restriction, the state requires the city to fully open its low-level outlet, according to Department of Water Resources spokesperson Jason Ince.
State regulators capped water levels at both reservoirs because of seismic safety concerns, with Lake Hodges restricted to less than 30% of its maximum capacity. State inspectors found the structural condition of the Lake Hodges dam was “unsatisfactory” and in need of immediate repairs.
Reservoirs can fill and spill during years with extreme rainfall potential, according to Public Utilities Department spokesperson Jennifer McBride, but the city faces a different storm-management challenge at each reservoir.
“This year, the city is again taking early, proactive steps to manage reservoir levels and is using updated hydrologic forecasts from regional and statewide partners to guide decision-making,” McBride told Times of San Diego. “This includes drawing down reservoirs well before the rainy season by sending water for treatment and use.”
The city will actively manage Lake Hodges’ water level before and during storms, releasing water to not exceed the state restriction.
Built in the early 20th century, both dams have seen three ‘Super’ El Niños — which struck San Diego in 1957-58, 1982-83 and 1997-98 — but never before have they faced a major El Niño season under their current operating restrictions.
Lake Hodges: More runoff, less room
Lake Hodges was first restricted by state regulators in 2019. The reservoir is capped at 280 feet — 35 feet below the 315-foot spillway crest, according to the dam safety division. The restriction has substantially reduced the amount of water the city can store at the reservoir.
The Division of Safety of Dams described Lake Hodges’ dam condition as “Unsatisfactory” in 2022, classifying the dam as requiring immediate or emergency repairs. Its possible failure is classified as an “Extremely High” downstream hazard, a designation used when failure could cause considerable loss of life or inundate an area containing at least 1,000 people.
Downstream areas along the San Dieguito River include Rancho Santa Fe, Fairbanks Ranch, Del Mar and Solana Beach, among other communities.
For Lake Hodges, that restriction matters most during storms. Its watershed can send large volumes of runoff into the reservoir, leaving the city to balance water storage against the need to maintain room for incoming storms.
The city, rather than state regulators, manages day-to-day reservoir operations. The state requires the city to monitor weather forecasts and adjust operations to minimize the amount of time Hodges exceeds 280 feet during storms. The city also maintains regular communication with the state dam safety division when conditions indicate the potential for releases or spills.
“The city is actively pursuing both interim and long-term projects to address the known deficiencies of Hodges Dam. We anticipate sharing information publicly on the interim risk reduction measure later this fall and on the analysis and determination for a long-term project in early 2027,” Public Utilities spokesperson Jennifer McBride wrote.
Lake Murray: Less runoff, different risks
Murray faces the same regulatory constraint, but not the same stormwater pressure or poor condition. The Division of Safety of Dams described its condition as “Fair” in 2023, meaning it does not have any structural deficiencies. Unlike Lake Hodges, Lake Murray is not in dire need of repairs.
State regulators restricted the reservoir’s water level to 90 feet in 2023, 5 feet below the dam spillway. If Murray exceeds that restriction, the state requires the city to fully open the dam’s low-level outlet.
Lake Murray poses an “Extremely High” downstream hazard in the event of failure, so a large reservoir water release could prove problematic. The state reports that a failure could affect downstream areas along Alvarado Creek and the San Diego River, including La Mesa and the College Area.
The city does not plan to lower Murray. The reservoir has a very small watershed and does not typically receive significant rainfall or runoff, according to Public Utilities.
The Murray Urban Runoff Diversion System also diverts runoff away from the reservoir.
Murray primarily supports the operation of the Alvarado Water Treatment Plant, so its water level normally remains relatively stable.
The city says it operates the dam a few feet below the regulatory restriction to provide additional freeboard for runoff.
