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The primary for the state’s top K-12 schools job is in less than a month, but judging from the polls, it’s debatable whether anyone is paying attention.
A whopping 32% of voters are undecided with just a few weeks until the June 2 primary for state superintendent of public instruction, according to a recent poll by the Public Policy Institute of California. In the past, it’s been one of the state’s hottest races, with millions of dollars in spending.
Among the dozen or so candidates, none had more than 10% of voters’ support, meaning that the race is essentially a 10-way tie.
“There’s no lack of qualified candidates, but previous elections had an urgency and a sense that who won really mattered,” said Morgan Polikoff, an education professor at USC. “We don’t have that this time.”
A job with few duties?
One reason for the malaise, observers said, may be that voters are more focused on education policy unfolding in Washington, D.C. The Trump administration is in the process of dismantling the U.S. Department of Education, which could potentially upend funding and student rights. Another reason might be that most of the candidates agree on the major issues, so there’s not much to distinguish them.
Regardless, the position might be nearly irrelevant by the time the new superintendent takes office. The state is poised to strip the superintendent of most duties. Gov. Gavin Newsom proposed in January that the superintendent no longer run the California Department of Education. Instead, it would fall under the control of the State Board of Education, which is appointed by the governor. The idea was introduced in his January budget proposal and is expected to pass the Legislature.
That would shift power over the state’s 10,000 public schools to the governor’s office. The superintendent would have few responsibilities except championing various education-related causes. The governor’s race would carry more relevance to school funding, policies and other issues than the superintendent’s race.
Teachers union weighs in
The California Teachers Association, one of the biggest players in education politics, has been far more involved in the governor’s race than the superintendent race. After Rep. Eric Swalwell dropped out of the governor’s race, the union endorsed billionaire Tom Steyer for governor, citing his alignment with the union’s priorities.
For superintendent, the union endorsed Richard Barrera, a San Diego Unified school board member who was little known outside San Diego before winning the union’s backing.
“The superintendent race is off the radar because the governor’s race has taken up so much bandwidth,” said David Goldberg, president of the union. “Although the superintendent’s impact is deeply felt by those who work in public education, it’s not widely known outside public education.”
The next superintendent will replace Tony Thurmond, who is termed out and is running for governor. The superintendent position is nonpartisan and pays $210,460. The top two candidates in June’s primary will advance to the November general election.
So far, the leading candidates in the superintendent’s race include a host of education policy veterans. Among them: Assemblymember Al Muratsuchi, former head of the Assembly education committee; Josh Newman, former head of the Senate education committee; Anthony Rendon, former speaker of the Assembly and a longtime early education program administrator; and Nichelle Henderson, a Los Angeles Community College District board member.
‘A lightning rod’
Sonja Shaw, a school board member in Chino Valley, is also running and has gained traction on the right. In the most recent poll, she had support from 7% of voters, the same as Barrera. Lance Christensen, who ran against Thurmond in 2022, predicted that Shaw will advance to the November election because Democrats’ votes will split among the other candidates.
Shaw is best known for her fiery positions on transgender student rights. She was propelled to the limelight in 2023 when she presided over a Chino Valley school board meeting where security guards escorted Thurmond out when he spoke over his time limit defending transgender students’ right to privacy. She’s been an outspoken advocate for schools to inform parents if their child identifies as transgender, and for students to participate on teams that align with their gender at birth.
“They can say anything they want about her, but she’s such a lightning rod that now everyone knows who she is,” said Christensen, who’s now a vice president at the anti-union California Policy Center. “I think this issue will take her all the way to Sacramento.”
Why no one’s talking about charter schools
One issue that’s been glaringly absent in the superintendent race is charter schools. In years past, charter schools were the No. 1 topic in the race. Candidates were deemed to be either “pro-charter” or “anti-charter,” with donations and rhetoric following suit. “Pro-charter” was often interpreted to mean anti-union, leading to an avalanche of rancor from both sides.
But the public, and even the unions, seem to have grown tired of arguing about the independent public schools. One reason is that many charter schools now have unions. Another reason is that because of declining enrollment, charter schools are no longer expanding; they appear to have plateaued at about 10% of overall enrollment.
A more likely reason is that voters see that charter schools and traditional public schools grapple with the same issues, said Marshall Tuck, a former chief executive of the Green Dot charter school network who ran for superintendent in 2018 and 2014. The 2018 election in which he lost to Thurmond was one of the most costly superintendent races ever, with contributions topping $50 million. By comparison, no candidate in the current election has raised more than $1 million so far.
Most schools – regardless of their governance structure – are facing teacher shortages, floundering reading and math scores and lackluster student engagement since the pandemic ended.
“Now that we’ve removed the charter vitriol, we can focus on bigger issues,” said Tuck, who is now chief executive at EdVoice, a policy advocacy organization. “The core issues are the same everywhere.”
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