By Colleen O’Connor
Forget the pundits, polls, and politicians.
They have all been wrong about this election cycle. And forget the useless math they all spout.
Historians are already debating what to call this election. Donald Trump study classes have begun in prestigious universities here and abroad straining to discover Trump’s appeal.
To me Trump’s appeal is simple and widespread—to anyone who listens.
I call his campaign the “Big No.” His answer is “no” to all that ails America.
No to more boots on the ground. “We are going to get out of the business of nation building.”
The Arab Spring led to ISIS not peace.
No to political correctness. It stifles free speech—a cornerstone in any robust democracy.
No to “illegal aliens.” Stand in line.
No to refugees (political, economic, etc.). “Build the Wall.”
No to “free stuff”—like college.
No to NAFTA, TTIP, and other often secret trade deals taking jobs from Americans.
No to nuclear proliferation.
No to “Si, se puede.”
But, most forcefully — no to losing. No to more America losing. As Trump promised, “We are going to win bigly.”
The appeal of “no” is universal. Everyone has something or someone they want to shout “NO” to—be it their misbehaving children, a computerized robo-voice, or their pets. Personal, political, economic, local, religious, governmental—“no” is now a major party’s platform.
No is also a command easily understood. First Lady Nancy Reagan understood this with her “Just Say No” campaign against illegal drug use.
Yes, Trump talk is simple, but easily understood. He skipped the teleprompters, the zillion page position papers, the handlers, pollsters, press mavens, and anything resembling the status quo. Most importantly, he ditched the double speak and spin doctors of the “chattering elite”—who helped drive the divide.
Trust in the government is gone. Trust in most institutions is gone. Trust in political parties, bankers, corporations—almost all gone. Replaced with anger and rage, no has become an acceptable option.
At the gut level, millions of Americans know that stopping their personal losses, and their country’s decline, must come before any hoped for improvements.
“No” works for them.
For those citing the math of the delegate count or the electoral college or the blue v. red states, forget those as well.
Trump is shooting in a voter pool that is expanding exponentially—the non-voters. Millions are coming out of the hills to protest. The usual metrics do not apply this election cycle. And Trump has already proven this in numerous states and across unbelievable demographics that few saw coming.
Granted this is among Republicans, but Bernie Sanders is hitting the same frayed nerves on the Democrats’ left. Trump and Sanders bang away like clashing cymbals in the finale to Tchaikovsky’s War of 1812—and the U.S. Presidential election of 2016.
Republicans have a history of uniting behind their party’s primary “winner” faster than the Democrats.
Bernie Sanders’ “revolution” may have unintended consequences.
And Hillary Clinton needs to discover a better answer to Trump’s “no” campaign.
California’s June 7 primary really matters this year.
Colleen O’Connor is a retired college history professor.
