Republican Carl DeMaio began his speech at a recent campaign rally in Lakeside with an alarming yet familiar message: Immigration at the southern border poses a major threat.
“We are facing an invasion that is threatening our national security and bankrupting our communities,” said DeMaio, who’s running to represent the state Assembly’s 75th District, which spans East County up to Riverside County to the U.S.-Mexico border.
DeMaio then spent 20 minutes denouncing the state of the border and California politics more broadly — eliciting cheers as he called the crowd to “stay and fight” in “the bloodiest part of the battlefield” — before making one final point: “We’ve got to secure our elections just as we secure our border.”
It’s a rhetorical strategy DeMaio has employed often in his campaign for one of California’s few reliably red districts — connecting voters’ concerns over border security with their mistrust in U.S. elections.
But research has broadly failed to find evidence that unlawful voting by immigrants happens on a scale big enough to impact the outcome of elections. In fact, many studies show voter fraud in general, though it happens, often results from mistakes and is extremely rare.
It is illegal for noncitizens to vote in state and federal elections. Registering to vote as a noncitizen carries up a penalty of prison time and immigration consequences, including deportation.
Still, there’s evidence DeMaio’s message is resonating with voters. DeMaio won 43% of the vote in the March primary. Republican Andrew Hayes barely finished second in the primary with 19% support.
As the top two primary vote-getters, DeMaio and Hayes will compete in the November general election. Hayes recently won the endorsement of the Republican Party of San Diego after the party broke from DeMaio.
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