Modeling by Scripps Health predicts that the current surge of COVID-19 hospitalizations should wind down by early March, with a slow decrease in patient volume driven by the Omicron variant of the virus over the coming weeks, the health system said Tuesday.
However, officials said staffing demands at Scripps facilities will remain high as hospitals stay busy with cases unrelated to COVID and as other patients reschedule procedures that were deferred during the latest wave of virus cases.
“We are finally seeing some light at the end of the tunnel for the Omicron surge, but this pandemic likely isn’t ending,” Scripps President and CEO Chris Van Gorder said. “COVID vaccination continues to play an important role in reducing the severity of surges and offsetting the potential effects of new coronavirus variants that might spread through the population in the future.”
“That includes getting your booster shot as recommended by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, which is 90% effective at preventing hospitalizations according to the agency’s most recent research,” he added.
According to the health system, daily COVID volumes at Scripps’ five hospital campuses peaked two weeks ago with 356 admissions, including 62 patients in ICUs. That compared to a pre-holiday volume in mid-November of 78 patients, with 31 in ICUs.
According to Scripps, the accuracy level of the modeling, has been “extremely high,” running in the low- to mid-90% range during all three of the major COVID surges — the Alpha variant in the winter of 2020, the Delta variant in the summer of 2021 and the Omicron variant that arrived this winter.
“Computer modeling has become a standard and critical tool that we use on an ongoing basis to operate our hospitals and clinics,” said Nathaniel Brown, Scripps director of health data sciences. “Early on in the pandemic, this technology prompted us to shift from a staffing structure that focused on each individual location to one that considered staffing needs across our entire system.”
“We also increased cooperation between Scripps hospitals for transferring patients when needed due to restricted resources,” Brown said. “And our modeling has helped hospital directors anticipate how their sites will be impacted over the coming two weeks.”
City News Service contributed to this article.